29%: The Number Defining Trump’s Economic Crisis
A 29% approval rating on the economy is not just a low point for President Donald Trump – it’s a flashing red warning signal for the GOP heading into the 2026 midterm elections. This figure, revealed in a new Reuters/Ipsos survey released Tuesday, represents an all-time low for Trump, eclipsing even the economic struggles faced by his predecessor, Joe Biden, who bottomed out at 32%. Follow the money: this isn’t about policy preferences, it’s about the tangible impact of a sputtering economy and, increasingly, the perception that Trump’s actions are actively worsening the situation.
The decline is precipitous. Since mid-February, before the escalation of the Iran conflict, Trump’s net approval on “cost of living” has plummeted from -31 to -41, and on inflation and rising prices, from -33 to -45. These aren’t abstract numbers; they represent a direct erosion of confidence in Trump’s ability to manage the financial pressures facing American households. The shift is particularly alarming because it’s not confined to opposition voters. Disapproval among Republicans regarding Trump’s handling of cost of living has risen from 27% to 34% in the same period, while disapproval on inflation jumped from 28% to 40%. This fracturing within his base suggests a growing sense that the economic narrative is slipping beyond his control.
Drawn from CNN.
The Iran war is the clear accelerant. While pre-existing economic anxieties were already weighing on public sentiment, the conflict has demonstrably amplified those concerns. A recent AP-NORC poll revealed that 45% of Americans are “extremely” or “very” concerned about affording gas in the coming months – a 15-point increase from December 2024, during the end of the Biden administration. This isn’t simply about the price at the pump; it’s a proxy for broader economic anxieties, as rising fuel costs ripple through the supply chain and impact the price of goods and services. Crucially, 67% of Americans prioritize preventing rising oil and gas prices as a key objective of the administration’s Iran policy, even surpassing the goal of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon (65%).
This prioritization exposes a fundamental disconnect between Trump’s stated strategy and the public’s priorities. He has argued the war will lower oil prices in the long term, framing short-term pain as a necessary sacrifice for weakening Iran. However, polls indicate Americans overwhelmingly reject this trade-off, with two-thirds stating they are unwilling to pay more for gas during the conflict. This resistance isn’t merely ideological; it’s a practical calculation based on household budgets already strained by inflation. The CBS News-YouGov poll further underscores this pessimism, with 63% of Americans expecting the war to weaken the economy in the short term and 44% anticipating long-term economic damage.
Beyond the immediate impact on energy prices, the war is exacerbating a pre-existing sentiment that Trump is neglecting domestic economic issues. Before the conflict, 45% of Americans felt Trump was “focusing too much” on international matters; that number has now surged to 58%. This sentiment is particularly pronounced among independents (up from 52% to 66%) and, significantly, within the Republican base (increasing from 19% to 29%). This suggests a growing perception that Trump is prioritizing geopolitical maneuvering over addressing the economic anxieties of his core constituency. The pattern mirrors the fallout from his tariffs last year – a deliberate pursuit of policies with demonstrable short-term economic costs.
Even optimistic scenarios – a swift end to the war and a rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz – are unlikely to provide immediate relief. As CNN’s David Goldman noted, oil prices tend to rise quickly but fall slowly, particularly in the wake of disruptions like this conflict. Moreover, the war has damaged other facets of the energy markets, requiring time and investment to rebuild. These lingering effects will likely translate into sustained economic pressure, potentially amplifying the political damage. What this means for your wallet is simple: brace for continued volatility at the gas pump and across the broader economy, and watch closely whether Trump adjusts his strategy to address the growing economic anxieties of American voters. The question now isn’t if the economy will impact the 2026 midterms, but how much – and whether Trump can regain the trust of a base increasingly concerned about their financial well-being.
