A By-Election Battleground: Gorton and Denton Reflect Shifting British Politics
A biting wind sweeps down Denton High Street, a stark contrast to the vibrant display of vapes behind Usman Khan’s counter. Khan, a recent transplant from nearby Gorton, finds himself at the heart of a pivotal moment for British politics. He is one of approximately 80,000 residents preparing to cast their ballots in the upcoming February 26 parliamentary by-election in the diverse constituency of Gorton and Denton. This area has become a microcosm of a broader national trend: the decline of traditional centrist support for both the Labour Party and the Conservatives, alongside a surge in popularity for emerging left- and right-wing political forces.
The by-election, triggered by the resignation of sitting Labour MP Andrew Gwynne citing health concerns following allegations of local party misconduct, is being closely watched. Analysts suggest the local Muslim vote will be a decisive factor in determining the outcome, with the result potentially echoing throughout Westminster. The stakes are high as the nation grapples with a rapidly evolving political landscape.
Labour's Decline and the Rise of Alternatives
Following a decisive victory in 2024, the United Kingdom’s ruling Labour Party is currently experiencing a significant downturn, attributed to a series of policy reversals and recent controversies. This decline has created an opening for alternative parties to gain traction. The Green Party and the right-wing Reform UK are capitalizing on this shift, attracting voters disillusioned with the established political order.
“It’s a tough, tough fight between Labour and Reform,” Usman Khan stated to Al Jazeera, acknowledging the intensity of the competition. He also noted the potential for the Green Party to fragment the Labour vote. The political climate in Gorton and Denton is complex, with voters weighing their options amidst a sense of uncertainty.
The Green Party's Opportunity and Labour's Plea for Unity
The Green Party views this by-election as a crucial opportunity to expand its influence. Hannah Spencer, the Green Party candidate, emphasized the significance of a victory, stating, “A win in Gorton and Denton would show that Greens can win everywhere in this country.” The party hopes to demonstrate its viability as a national force.
Meanwhile, the Labour Party is attempting to frame the election as a choice between unity and division. Stogia, the Labour candidate, argued that a vote for the Green Party would inadvertently benefit Reform UK. The party is actively campaigning to highlight the potential consequences of a fragmented left-wing vote.
Local Dynamics and the Reform Challenge
Despite Andy Burnham’s popularity as Manchester mayor, Reform UK’s Matthew Goodwin is gaining momentum in Denton, particularly as the left-wing vote is split between Labour and the Greens. Goodwin, a former academic and commentator, has faced criticism for his views on race, which have alienated some residents in the multicultural area of Manchester.
“To be very honest, Reform is popular, but I would say that the Reform candidate is not popular,” Khan explained, stressing the importance of local connections for any elected representative. He emphasized that Goodwin is perceived as an outsider, lacking a genuine connection to the community.
Diverse Towns, Divergent Views
The constituency of Gorton and Denton encompasses both majority-white Denton and multicultural Gorton, reflecting distinct political sentiments. While Reform UK may find some support in Denton during local council elections, its success in the by-election remains uncertain. Gorton, with its diverse population including a significant Muslim community (approximately 30% of the electorate), is considered more predictable.
Professor Robert Ford of Manchester noted that Gorton’s demographics—including a large Muslim population, students, young professionals, and families—are generally favorable to the left and the Green Party. He also highlighted the volatility of the Muslim vote, stating, “The Muslim vote will absolutely decide the election. It’s pivotal and hard to predict.” The community’s shift away from Labour in 2024, driven by concerns over the party’s stance on the conflict in Gaza, further complicates predictions.
