Trump's Endorsement Power: A Double-Edged Sword in GOP Primaries
Former President Donald Trump continues to exert significant influence over the Republican Party, particularly within the fiercely contested primary races unfolding across the nation. While his broader political standing has faced scrutiny following his second term, Trump’s endorsement remains a coveted asset for GOP candidates, a reality he recently highlighted. "They say whoever I endorse wins," he stated to reporters on February 1st at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, seemingly confident in his continued sway. This dominance is currently playing out in Texas, where Senate GOP leaders are rallying behind Texas Republican Sen. John Cornyn and urging Trump’s support, despite the former president remaining uncommitted as of the March 3rd contest.
Navigating the Texas Primary and Potential Risks
The situation in Texas underscores a growing concern among some Republicans: Trump’s endorsement strategy doesn't always guarantee the elevation of the strongest general election candidates. This concern stems from past instances where Trump-backed candidates faltered, such as the 2022 Senate campaigns of Mehmet Oz and Herschel Walker. GOP consultant Matthew Bartlett, who served in Trump’s first administration, aptly summarized the unpredictable nature of Trump’s actions, stating, "You never know when he will stick his finger in the eye of a political ally or where he will elevate a complete MAGA dud." Representative Don Bacon, a Nebraska Republican, voiced a direct apprehension, declaring, "He’s risking losing Texas."
Trump's Legacy and the 2026 Midterm Landscape
The way Trump utilizes his endorsement power will have far-reaching consequences. It could significantly impact the 2026 midterm elections, his final two years in office, and ultimately shape the future direction of the GOP for years to come. His choices are not merely about securing primary victories; they are about defining his political legacy and influencing the party’s trajectory. This influence has previously been demonstrated through his targeting of Republicans who defied him, including Liz Cheney and former Trump Attorney General Jeff Sessions. The president is currently challenging GOP incumbents in both the House and Senate, signaling a continued effort to maintain control within the party.
Beyond Texas: Targeting Incumbents and Shifting Dynamics
Trump’s influence extends beyond the Texas primary, with recent actions highlighting a willingness to challenge even established Republicans. He recently endorsed a primary challenger to Louisiana GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy, despite the senator’s subsequent alignment with Trump’s agenda. This move, according to former Michigan GOP Rep. Fred Upton, demonstrates a willingness to target even “safe seats,” suggesting a broader strategy of retribution and control. Furthermore, Trump’s actions have prompted the departure of North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, a significant loss for the GOP in a key battleground state.
A History of Endorsement Success and Notable Flops
Despite occasional missteps, Trump has historically enjoyed a high success rate with his endorsements. A Washington Post analysis revealed a 95% win rate for candidates he backed in 2018, 97% in 2020, and 93% in 2022. However, his choices haven't always translated to general election victories. Notable examples of Trump-backed candidates who lost include Blake Masters (Arizona), Oz (Pennsylvania), Walker (Georgia), Kari Lake (Arizona), and Doug Mastriano (Pennsylvania). Even in his recent endorsement of Lake for her 2024 Senate bid, she suffered another defeat.
The Path Forward: A Calculated Approach?
Despite the occasional miscalculation, many within the GOP perceive a shift towards a more pragmatic approach from Trump. He has endorsed numerous incumbents and supported candidates backed by party leaders, aiming to streamline primaries and minimize costly internal battles. Republican Florida Sen. Rick Scott noted, "He’s very focused on keeping the House and the Senate," suggesting a prioritization of electoral success above all else. Douglas Brinkley, a presidential historian, observes that Trump utilizes "fear as a weapon," compelling Republicans to align with his vision.
