Concerns Mount Over Democratic Backsliding Ahead of Midterm Elections
As the United States approaches the pivotal midterm elections, a growing number of political scientists are expressing serious concerns about a potential shift towards authoritarianism. The anxieties stem from recent actions and rhetoric that some observers believe erode democratic norms and institutions. Staffan I. Lindberg, director of Sweden’s V-Dem Institute, a global monitor of democratic processes, has stated that the U.S. has already surpassed a critical threshold, classifying it as an "electoral autocracy." This assessment is echoed by Steven Levitsky, a Harvard University professor and co-author of How Democracies Die, who suggests the nation may be sliding into a "mild form of competitive authoritarianism." He believes this trajectory, while potentially reversible, represents a significant threat to the country’s democratic foundations.
Competitive authoritarianism, as defined by experts, describes a system where elections are held, but the ruling party employs tactics like suppressing the press, restricting voter access, manipulating the justice system, and intimidating critics to unfairly influence electoral outcomes. These actions, while not outright eliminating elections, create an uneven playing field that undermines the fairness and integrity of the democratic process. The potential for such a shift has prompted widespread discussion and debate among political analysts and the public alike.
Autocratic Actions and Rhetoric Raise Alarms
Recent events during the Trump administration have fueled these concerns, with several instances cited as examples of potentially autocratic behavior. One notable incident involved a threat directed at Disney, the parent company of ABC, following commentary by Jimmy Kimmel regarding the death of Charlie Kirk. Brendan Carr, chairman of the Federal Communications Commission, issued a warning, stating, "We can do this the easy way or the hard way." Subsequently, President Trump proposed utilizing U.S. military forces to conduct training exercises within American cities. He characterized the situation as an "invasion from within," drawing parallels to foreign adversaries, despite their lack of conventional military uniforms.
These actions, reminiscent of language employed by South American dictators like Augusto Pinochet in Chile during the 1970s, have prompted comparisons and raised questions about the direction of American governance. The use of such rhetoric and the willingness to threaten powerful corporations have been interpreted by some as attempts to stifle dissent and consolidate power.
Resilience of the U.S. System and Ongoing Challenges
While some scholars dispute the characterization of Trump as a would-be autocrat, arguing he is merely addressing perceived excesses of his predecessor, Joe Biden, others maintain that the U.S. system of government, though strained, remains fundamentally democratic. Kurt Weyland, a researcher at the University of Texas at Austin, expresses growing confidence in the nation’s ability to withstand attempts to expand executive power. He notes that while Trump initially pursued a "steamroller" approach, facing limited resistance, this has begun to change.
Weyland points to instances where Trump’s efforts to influence elections, such as through redistricting, have yielded limited success. He also highlights the public backlash following the deaths of two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis at the hands of federal agents, a situation that Tom Homan, former border czar, indicated is leading to a reduction in aggressive immigration enforcement tactics in Minnesota. The professor emphasizes that the failure to significantly skew future elections and the negative consequences of the Minneapolis incident demonstrate a degree of resilience within the American system.
Threats to Election Integrity and Voter Participation
The upcoming midterm elections present a crucial test for American democracy. Concerns have been raised regarding the Trump administration’s pursuit of voter data from various states, a move that worries Kim Scheppele, a Princeton University sociologist who has studied the authoritarian tactics of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Scheppele recalls a 2014 incident in Hungary where voters living abroad were deliberately disenfranchised through manipulated polling locations.
Furthermore, Steve Bannon, a close ally of Trump, recently proposed deploying Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to polling places to deter undocumented voting, a practice that is statistically rare. While White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt denied any discussion of such a plan, and federal law prohibits it, Brendan Nyhan, a professor at Dartmouth College, warns that even the contemplation of such interference could suppress voter turnout among people of color and naturalized citizens who fear harassment. Nyhan emphasizes the finality of Election Day, stating, "There are no do-overs."
