Russia’s Enhanced Air Defenses Present Growing Challenge to NATO
Recent analysis indicates that Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine has inadvertently strengthened its air defense capabilities, posing a potentially greater threat to NATO forces than prior to 2022. Despite sustaining losses of equipment during the war, the Russian military has demonstrably improved its tactics, upgraded existing systems, and maintained a substantial arsenal. This assessment comes from a new report by Justin Bronk, an air power expert at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
The conflict has served as a rigorous testing ground for Russian air defense systems, allowing for real-world refinement and adaptation. According to Bronk’s report, these systems “not only remain numerous, but are also likely to perform better against NATO aircraft and munitions in a hypothetical direct conflict than they would have before 2022.” This improvement stems from increased operator experience, software enhancements, and the continued production of advanced missile systems.
The Scale of Russia’s Air Defense Network
Despite consistent strikes by Ukraine utilizing drones, artillery, and missiles, Russia continues to field “several hundred batteries” of air defense systems. Importantly, newer, more sophisticated variants are consistently being added to the inventory. This sheer volume presents a significant hurdle for NATO, which lacks a comparable density of ground-based air defenses within Europe. Bronk’s analysis, informed by interviews with Western military personnel and open-source intelligence, highlights the “highly potent threat” posed by Russia’s integrated air defense network.
The primary concern for NATO lies in Russia’s extensive ground-based surface-to-air missile coverage. While a direct air-to-air confrontation would likely favor NATO, achieving air superiority – a foundational element of Western military doctrine – would require successfully suppressing or neutralizing this dense network before deploying air assets. This task is complicated by the improved coordination and effectiveness of Russian air defense units.
Improved Coordination and Tactical Adaptations
Russia’s military has demonstrably enhanced its ability to integrate its air defense systems with other assets, particularly airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft. Ukraine has observed increased coordination between long-range surface-to-air missiles, fighter jets, and A-50U AEW&C aircraft since mid-2023. This allows Russian forces to engage targets at extended ranges, even beyond the direct line of sight of the missile systems themselves.
Bronk suggests that Russia could employ similar tactics against NATO forces, potentially engaging aircraft at lower altitudes and greater distances. While the probability of a successful strike remains low, this evolution demonstrates a significant increase in the skill and sophistication of Russian air defense crews. Simultaneously, NATO has gained valuable insights into the strengths and weaknesses of Russian systems through the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Addressing the Challenge: NATO’s Response
Despite the increased threat, Bronk emphasizes that NATO possesses the weaponry and tactics necessary to counter Russia’s air defenses. However, he notes that these capabilities are currently insufficient in number within Europe. NATO has acknowledged the challenge and committed to increasing its investment in ground-based air defense systems, with overall defense spending on the rise.
Ultimately, Bronk concludes that Russia’s air defense capabilities have been “boosted by combat lessons over almost four years of operations,” necessitating a continued and concerted effort from NATO to maintain a credible deterrent and ensure its ability to project air power in a potential conflict. The lessons learned in Ukraine underscore the critical importance of robust, integrated air defense systems in modern warfare.
